MIAC Women's Soccer Scenarios
MIAC Women's Soccer

Playoff Scenarios

Standings through the games of Friday, Oct. 30, 2026. Five conference games remain, all on Saturday, Oct. 31. The top six of 12 teams qualify for the playoffs, which start Nov. 3.

Clinched

Still alive

Eliminated

The last spot

Carleton, St. Catherine, Saint Benedict, St. Olaf and Macalester have clinched, and Macalester (18 points) is locked into the No. 5 seed. The sixth spot, and the No. 6 seed, goes to Bethel or Concordia, and two games decide it.

Carleton (28 points) has the No. 1 seed locked up and St. Catherine (25) has No. 2, so both have first-round byes. Saint Benedict and St. Olaf are locked into the 3 and 4 seeds. Saint Mary's, Gustavus, Augsburg, St. Scholastica and Hamline are eliminated.

Bethel has 14 points and Concordia has 12. Concordia wins a head-to-head tiebreaker with Bethel, so it takes the spot by winning its last game and keeping Bethel from winning its own.

Who gets the sixth spot, by result of each game.

St. Catherine at Concordia (Oct. 31)Bethel wins at Saint Mary'sBethel tiesBethel loses
Concordia winsBethelConcordiaConcordia
TieBethelBethelBethel
St. Catherine winsBethelBethelBethel

Counting each combination equally, Bethel gets in 7 of 9 times and Concordia 2 of 9.

Scenario builder

Quarterfinals and bracket

Seeds 1 and 2 host the semifinals. The final is hosted by the higher seed. Game times are tentative.

Tiebreakers, in order

  1. Head-to-head record among all tied teamsOnly the games the tied teams played against each other count. Points in those games (3 per win, 1 per tie) decide it.
  2. Most wins in conference playMore wins beats more ties. A team with more conference wins ranks ahead even if it has fewer total points.
  3. Goal differential in conference play, maximum of plus-four per gameConference goals scored minus goals allowed, counting a margin of no more than four in any one game.
  4. Lowest goals against in conference playFewest goals allowed in all conference games.
  5. Standings points against other teams in the playoffsPoints earned against playoff teams that are not part of the tie.
  6. Wins against other teams in the playoffsNumber of wins against playoff teams that are not part of the tie.
  7. Points system: add the position numbers of the conference teams each tied team defeated; the lowest total is the higher seedEach team adds up the standings positions of the conference teams it beat. A lower total means its wins came against better-ranked opponents.
  8. Coin tossUsed only if every step above leaves teams level.

With three or more teams tied, once any step separates one or more teams, those teams are set aside and the rest start again at step 1.

How this page works

With undecided games, the page plays out every win, tie and loss combination of those games (up to 531,441) and counts how often each team lands on each seed. Each combination is weighted equally, so read the percentages as a guide to how many paths lead somewhere, not as forecasts.

Steps 5 and 6 are read as points and wins against playoff teams that are not in the tied group. Steps 3 to 8 are applied only when every game has a result and score. Until then, a team caught in a tie that survives step 2 shows a seed range such as 3\u20134.

Unofficial. Official standings and tiebreaker decisions come from the MIAC office.